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The technical chart of the ZAR vs. USD confirms the current fundamental view on the two currencies.  Locally, the Rand should remain under pressure, Eskom continues to struggle to provide industry with reliable power and it seem unable to indicate when that situation will be rectified.  Local business faces significant headwinds with labour issues, rising prices of input costs and a struggling consumer.  The view is that local interest rates could be lowered to help aid the economy, that however will only compound the pressure on the ZAR.  In the US, growth is picking up, and the general consensus is that rates will rise there within the next year.  The fundamental argument to buy the USD and sell the ZAR is compelling.  The technical chart confirms this.  The weakening trend of the Rand is not only steady, it’s been in place for nearly 5 years.  Unless there is a significant change to any of the fundamentals mentioned above, that trend will remain in place and it is very possible that we could be close to R13.00 vs USD by year-end.

With Almo Lubowski – almo@courtneycap.co.za

Looking at the monthly candle chart of ANG we can see that it recently halved in just over 2 months from R200 to below R100. It is currently trading at the same levels it was back in 2000 – 2001. Chart from Bloomberg LP.